This is FIN's report card — it shows how well predictions matched what actually happened in the market.

What's in the Table

Column	What It Means
Pred Date	When the prediction was made
Target Date	The date the prediction was for
Predicted	What the system predicted ($)
Actual	What actually happened ($)
Error %	How far off the prediction was (as a percentage)
Band Hit	Did the actual price fall within the expected range? (Yes/No)

How to Read Error %

• Green (< 5%): The prediction was close — good job
• Amber (5–10%): Somewhat off — worth noting
• Red (> 10%): Significantly wrong — something unexpected happened

A prediction can have a large error % but still be a "Band Hit" if the actual price fell within the confidence band. That means the system correctly judged how uncertain it should be.

Band Hit: The More Important Metric

The system doesn't just predict a single number — it predicts a price range (the confidence band). A Band Hit means the actual price landed inside that range.

Band Hit	What It Tells You
Hit	The system correctly estimated the uncertainty. The actual price was where expected, even if the exact number was off
Miss	The actual price was outside the predicted range — the system was too confident or got the direction wrong

A high band hit rate (70%+) means the system is well-calibrated.

The Feedback Loop

Accuracy data doesn't just sit there — it drives improvement:

Prediction made→Market close→Actual price compared to prediction→Error calculated→System learns→Next prediction is better

What to Watch

• Track your trend — is error % going down over time? That means the system is learning.
• Watch for patterns — if predictions are consistently too high, the system should self-correct.
• Check band hits — a low hit rate means the system is either too confident or missing the right direction.
• Big errors are clues — a sudden large error usually means an unexpected event (check the Surprises page).