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Predictions
Every price forecast the system has ever made, sorted with the most recent first.
What's in the Table
| Column | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Date | When the prediction was made |
| Target Date | The future date the prediction is for |
| Current Price | The stock price at the time of prediction |
| Predicted | What the system thinks the price will be on the target date |
| Diff | Difference between predicted and current price. Up arrow (↑) = predicted to rise, down (↓) = predicted to fall |
| Band | The confidence range [low, high] — the system expects the price to land somewhere in this range |
| Confidence | How sure the system is (0 to 1). Higher numbers = more confident |
| Horizon | Short (1–2 days), medium, or long (~10 days) |
| Type | Final = complete prediction / Intermediate = rough update during the day |
| Reasoning | Click "View" to see the AI's explanation for this prediction |
| After | Which step of the pipeline produced this prediction |
How to Read a Prediction
A good prediction has:
- A clear direction — the Diff should show a meaningful gap (up or down), not tiny noise
- A narrow band — a tight price range shows confidence
- A high confidence score — above 0.7 is strong
- A detailed reason — the reasoning text should make sense given the current news
Filtering Options
- Horizon tabs (short / medium / long): Focus on predictions for a specific timeframe
- Time range picker: Show predictions from the last 1 day up to the last year
Prediction Gating
FIN uses a MAPE-based gating system to automatically withhold predictions when recent accuracy is poor, preventing false outputs from reaching the dashboard.
How It Works
Each prediction horizon (short / medium / long) is gated independently:
- MAPE is computed — a rolling mean of the absolute percentage error over the most recent 20 accuracy-validation records, within a configurable time window (default 60 days).
- If MAPE exceeds the threshold (default 8.0%), that horizon enters gated mode — predictions are skipped and recorded as NULL-valued rows with the reason
MAPE exceeds confidence threshold. - A cooldown mechanism prevents permanent lockout: after a configurable number of consecutive skips (default 5), the system forces a retry. This gives accuracy a chance to recover.
- When MAPE drops back below the threshold (because new low-error predictions age out the old high-error ones), gating lifts automatically.
What You'll See
- Gating banner at the top of the Predictions page — green when inactive, yellow when gating is disabled, red when any horizon is actively gated. The red banner shows each gated horizon, current MAPE vs. threshold, and a cooldown progress bar.
- Skipped predictions in the table display a label like "MAPE 12.3% > 8%".
Configuration
Gating can be tuned per ticker in the Prompt Config page:
| Setting | Default | Range | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Master toggle | On | On/Off | Enables or disables gating entirely |
| MAPE threshold | 8.0% | 1–50% | MAPE above this triggers gating per horizon |
| Skip cooldown | 5 | 1–30 | Consecutive skips before a forced retry |
| Accuracy window | 60 days | 7–365 | Rolling window for MAPE computation |
Stale-Data Gating
In addition to MAPE gating, if no OHLCV price data has been received in 3+ days (accounting for weekends/holidays), predictions are withheld with a stale_data reason.

