FIN scans news articles for unexpected events — things that caught the market off guard.

What Counts as a Surprise?

A surprise happens when reality is different from what everyone expected:

Type	Example
Earnings surprise	"Company earned $2.50/share vs. expected $2.00"
Economic surprise	"GDP grew 0.5% vs. forecast of 2.0%"
Guidance surprise	"Company lowered its outlook for next quarter"
Qualitative surprise	"New regulations announced unexpectedly"

Reading the Table

Column	What It Tells You
Article	The news article that reported the surprise
Time	When the surprise was detected
Type	What kind of surprise (earnings, economic, guidance)
Magnitude	How big the surprise is (0–100). Higher = more dramatic
Direction	Positive (beat) or negative (miss)
Ticker Relevance	How important this is for the tracked stock
Market Relevance	How important this is for the overall market
Confidence	How confident the system is that this is a real surprise

How to Read Magnitude

• 0–30: Minor — not likely to move the stock much
• 30–60: Moderate — could cause a noticeable price change
• 60–100: Major — likely to be a significant market mover

Why Surprises Matter

• Positive surprises (earnings beats) usually push stock prices up
• Negative surprises often trigger selloffs
• A pattern of surprises tells you something important:
  • Consistently beating expectations = strong company
  • Consistently missing = struggling company
  • Unexpected surprises = new development worth investigating

The system uses surprise signals as one of its inputs when making predictions. When a major surprise is detected, future predictions will account for it.

What to Do

• Check surprises when predictions change suddenly — there's probably a related surprise
• Read the original article to understand the full context
• Track surprise direction over time — a string of negative surprises is a red flag